Cost-Effectiveness of Optimal Control Strategies to Control the Number of E-Cigarette Users among Teenagers in Thailand using Mathematical Model
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to propose an SIGR mathematical model representing the behaviour of e-cigarettes use among teenagers in Thailand and to investigate the optimal control strategies of the model. The population in this study is divided into four compartments: those at risk of smoking cigarettes and e-cigarettes, cigarette smoking group, e-cigarette smoking group and those who quit smoking permanently. Our goal is to find the best strategy that reduces the number of e-smokers while minimizing the cost of the control measures. We use three control measures which are e-cigarette smoking prevention campaign, tax increasing on cigarettes, and education programs on the dangers of both types of cigarettes. The results show that the increasing tax on cigarettes does not reduce the number of e-cigarette smokers, but the number of the e-cigarettes is increased. This is because reducing the rate of smoking cigarettes will increase the chance of individuals deciding to smoke e-cigarettes as an alternative. Moreover, cost-effectiveness analysis is performed using incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The research shows e-cigarette smoking prevention campaign is the optimal control strategy and the most cost-effective of all strategies considered in this study.
Keywords : mathematical modeling ; e-cigarette control ; optimal control ; cost-effectiveness analysis
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