Appropriate Models for Forecasting of Water Supply Consumption in Ubonratchathani Province
Abstract
At present, water supply consumption in Ubonratchathani province is increasing. Forecasting water consumption of people using appropriate and accurate model is very important and useful for planning the measures to support the increased use of water supply. The purpose of this research was to construct a model suitable for the time series of water consumption of people in Ubonratchathani province in 4 stations, including Ubonratchathani Station, Phipun mangsahan Station, Det Udom Station, and Khemarat Station. The data of 168 values were obtained from the website of Provincial Waterworks Authority from January 2004 to December 2017. The data were divided into two sets. Set 1 was the data from January 2004 to December 2016, of which 156 values were used for constructing univariate time series based on the method of Box – Jenkins and the hybrid model of the technique of Box – Jenkins and support vector regression. Set 2 was the data from January to December 2017, of which 12 values were used for the comparison of the accuracy of forecasting of each station by using Mean Absolute Error (MAE ) and Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE). The results showed that the hybrid model was more accurate in forecasting than a single model due to the lowest MAE and MAPE values. The hybrid model can be used as a tool to forecast the amount of water supply of people in Ubon Ratchathani Province appropriately.It can also be used for decision making for planning water supply management to meet the needs of people in the future.
Keywords: water supply consumption, forecasting, Box – Jenkins, hybrid forecasting, Ubonratchathani Province
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