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Epidemic Model for Vaccination and Quarantine | Denphetnong | งดใช้ระบบ 3-31 กค 66 Burapha Science Journal

Epidemic Model for Vaccination and Quarantine

Adisak Denphetnong, Marisa Suannim, Jiranan Kumkiam

Abstract


 

This study aims to develop epidemic model for vaccination and quarantine. The model is formulated based on SEIRVQ (Susceptible-Exposed– Infected - Recovered - Vaccinated - Quarantine) in order to predict the number of infection when an outbreak occurs. The model exhibits two equilibriums, disease-free and endemic equilibriums. The stability theory of differential equations and numerical simulation are used. The results found that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if the basic reproductive number is less than unity. It means that the disease can be eradicated from the population. On the contrary, in case of the basic reproductive number is greater than unity, the endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. Furthermore, the formulated model is used to predict the chickenpox outbreak in 2016 at Songkhla, Thailand. Then, the predicted data were compared with the actual cases.

 

Keywords : SEIRVQ  epidemic model, basic reproductive number, stability


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References


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