Modeling of Maximum Temperature in Northeast Thailand
Abstract
The aim of this study was to find the optimal model of maximum and minimum temperature in central northeast of Thailand by using the Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) and Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). The return levels for each return period of maximum temperature were also found. Time series data that used in this study were the maximum temperature during 1985 to 2015 from the Meteorological Department of Thailand in 25 meteorological stations from Meteorological Department. An “extreme” package in R program. The results of the study indicate that the optimal model of maximum temperature of stations is Weibull distribution and Gumbel distribution 15 and 10 stations respectively and GPD of maximum temperature of stations is Exponential distribution 22 stations and Pareto Distribution 3 stations. Based on return levels 5-years 10-years 25-years 50-years and 100-years, the temperature in the northeast of Thailand. Nongkhai Meteorogical station has the highest return level of maximum temperature for each return period to solve and prevent the temperature increasing problem, Nongkhai Meteorogical station should be the first considered
Keywords : Extreme value, Maximum temperature, Generalized extreme value distribution, Generalized pareto
distribution, Return level
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