Forecasting Crisis Peaks of Economics in Thailand Using Grey Model

Nuengruthai Doungdee, Monchaya Chiangpradit

Abstract


The objective of this research was to forecast economic crisis in Thailand using grey model. The data used in this study is the percentage of annual growth of gross domestic product and chain volume measures since 1991 to 2016, 26 years in total. GM(1,1) and Discrete Grey model  (DGM)  were applied and 4 criteria were used to test the performance of the model, namely mean relative error, absolute degree of incidence, variance ratio and small error probability. The result was indicated that DGM performs better than GM(1,1).             

 

Keywords :  Grey model, annual growth of gross domestic product and chain volume measures, GM(1,1), DGM


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References


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